Tuesday, February 1, 2011


Gonna break?


  1. Probably! I piked up a bunch of silver earlier this morning since it broke upwards on the daily.

  2. Hey Julian,
    I've covered out my short and am currently sitting net flat in gold. I'm long the usd down here but it's looking like a dead duck. No ES shorts yet but I'm looking at 1318 to 1320. I'm also short the Euro in here but that is just a small position. There's a real battle at the moment between what the fundamental data is telling us and some of the technicals. I've been trying to trade more intraday lately as it's been a bit goofy lately.
    I think Silver and Gold will continue hgher in the midst of some more unrest in the middle east, but if the USD decides to launch, it could get ugly.
    Hope you are well!

  3. The markets are definitely goofy lately. I'm actually doing the opposite of what you are to deal with it. I'm holding my positions longer (I'm holding things for ~1 month lately). I'm long ZW (I've got 100+ points in on this already), and just picked up some silver yesterday.

    I agree that things could ugly quickly, it seems like the markets are so unstable that they could just turn on a dime (considering they've gone up like an elevator the last 6 months). But bigger picture I think we're still heading higher until at least mid-year. That's when I think that things will get interesting. That's when QE2 is supposed to stop, which is what seems to be holding everything up.

  4. Well, 100 points in wheat is pretty sweet! Nicely done. I went to more intraday trading as the waiting for something to happen was driving me nuts. Between the DX, Eur and CAD it's been fun. I now have a core position of long USD, short Euro and now I've added some ES at 1300. We could head off north of 1310 but then you're into no man's land and the fundamental issues become glaring. I would go out on a limb and say that the volumes would be even worse but who knows... I think we can get a bearish engulfing candle to 1255 and then you'll see 1242, 1224 and 1180 pretty fast. ie if we open below 1297 then I think this will play out. Ciao!

  5. We got our move down below 1297 and I was loaded short across the board expecting a flash crash repeat. What happened next is depressing and sad...

  6. That's basically been the story for the last many months. I've tried shorting TF on several occasions seeing a breakdown in the small caps, only to get blown out every time. :(

    At this point, I'm waiting to see a confirmed real breakdown - a top put in, a low, and then a lower top.

    I went short ZB yesterday - looks like we're busting out of the consolidation range.