Sunday, November 28, 2010
Monday, November 22, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
This one is for Jason.
The support area from the QE2 announcement day was clearly at 1328. So, we use that as a place to buy. You go in with 30% of your total size and see if it holds. Yesterday, when we went into the spot, the price was only there for a quick second. That is the second indicator that tells us we had a good entry. Also, we've come off almost 100 points from the high which is still a good size move to consider before going in for a trade. ie what percentage of the contract does that encompass - 8% or so, so it's a decent retracement. Lastly, the 100min chart shows we are still wedging higher and making higher lows...
The 3 min chart shows that we are holding the spot and wedging higher. So, I'm long my next 30%. Once we start to head higher, you finish the entry with your last 40%. I bought 1329/8 and 1335 as the lows are gettting higher. I"ll buy again if we break out past 1344, come back and HOLD. Then your trend should be in... Out target needs to be around 3:1 of our entry price vs our risk. That puts is in around 30 points or somewhere in the 1360's. The stepping process of entering trades works on 1min charts for intraday scalps and on the 60 min charts for swing trades. I don't take position trades as I don't trade on fundamentals.
*EDIT* got hit last night on GOLD - 1364/5 - + 31 points.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Monday, November 8, 2010
0.9986... sometime overnight
*EDIT* I haven't posted in a bit but I have been in and out of this currency several times this week. The game plan was always the same - sell upper 90's and buy lower 90's. At no time did I ever go long, but I think we may push through par the next go around. Gold and oil have both found support and may continue to push higher. I will sell CAD hard if Gold doesn't hold the 1355's. As a matter of fact, if the CAD cannot get back up to par and Gold continues higher, it could be an indicator that Gold (and silver) are done.
*EDIT* short CAD and Gold on the breakdown this morning through 1355.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
From the way gold is trading I have to think that we are closer to a top than a bottom. The Gap fill was completed and the market reacted by selling off quite significantly. Basically, you're 50 points risk to the upside and 100 plus to the downside... I like the R:R here on the short side. The other possibility is that this becomes one gigantic wedge break to the upside.... lol.
Same with the CAD. I will attempt a short in the next 24 to 48 hours up into resistance on both commodities.
*EDIT* short starters in Gold and CAD - 1357 and 0,9920 resp.
*EDIT* This is why you never go all in at one spot. Took a small loss on my GC contracts and my CAD futures positions. No bid deal. At least we now know what we're playing with. It's interesting that this is all taking place before the open... Could see a massive fade.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
*edit* added again today in the upper 1180's. Full position at 1180 average price. Now that we are fully short, a close above 1190 will take me out.
Added more USD futures long today 77.36 - got the low tick!!
Looking to short the Euro into 1.36 but I can't get a good entry....
*EDIT* I'm out today 1180. +2
No Positions at the moment....
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
Monday, September 20, 2010
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Looks like we are trading in a range lately. It seems uncertainty does indeed have a range... and 1130 to 1040 looks to be it.
If we go back to July 7 - a day in which the buying was extremely aggressive and a day in which we broke the downtrend of the prior couple of weeks - 1036 is very strong intraday support. I also see 1052 as intraday support too. Just not as strong. Also, 1052 was a good support level for the weeks following - see highlights - and it was the 50% retracement from 1002 to the 1128 high. So, there are a couple of reasons that put the probability in your favour for a long there. I was confident for a long there but took half out on a 5 point breakdown.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010
Looked like a chance for a gap up. I liked how we held the 1097 spot at the end of the day. This adjusts my price to 1090. Took some profits out up here in the teens. I still think we can launch at some point.-
ya, I need to adjust that stop.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Monday, July 26, 2010
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
... of this mornings 1091 short.
This is the breakout point from last week - 1059.25 and a nice intraday double bottom.
I'm also taking an equivalent long in the Dec. contract at 1055 as a bit of a hedge in here. Not sure of where we go with today's weakness but I wanted to lock in this short.