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Euro

Looks like most of the info is priced in... trying for a long in here south of 1.32.

*EDIT* this thing must be broken... took a tiny loss on a starter... ended up daytrading this for a modest gain.

Uncertain?

I don't care what your predictions are ... this is what uncertainty looks like.

Adding ES long at 1088

Full position long - average price is in the upper 1170's.

Stop on half is 2 ticks below today's low....

*EDIT* took half out at 1205 last night.... +25 points.

*EDIT* stopped on the other half... +5.

No positions at the moment.

ES

....currently sitting in at resistance... taking some profits here (+8)to pay for the risk. Trade is now free.

SPY R:R profile

Gold chart.

This one is for Jason.

The support area from the QE2 announcement day was clearly at 1328. So, we use that as a place to buy. You go in with 30% of your total size and see if it holds. Yesterday, when we went into the spot, the price was only there for a quick second. That is the second indicator that tells us we had a good entry. Also, we've come off almost 100 points from the high which is still a good size move to consider before going in for a trade. ie what percentage of the contract does that encompass - 8% or so, so it's a decent retracement. Lastly, the 100min chart shows we are still wedging higher and making higher lows...

The 3 min chart shows that we are holding the spot and wedging higher. So, I'm long my next 30%. Once we start to head higher, you finish the entry with your last 40%. I bought 1329/8 and 1335 as the lows are gettting higher. I"ll buy again if we break out past 1344, come back and HOLD. Then your trend should be in... Out target needs to be around 3:1 of our entry price vs our risk. That puts is in around 30 points or somewhere in the 1360's. The stepping process of entering trades works on 1min charts for intraday scalps and on the 60 min charts for swing trades. I don't take position trades as I don't trade on fundamentals.

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*EDIT* got hit last night on GOLD - 1364/5 - + 31 points.

Long ES

...in the form of HSU.to Also long the ES itself in at 1174.50. Probably see a bounce to 1191 and a possible flush through to 1163. After that, we should go north of 1250.

Gold and the CAD

Covering my gold short and CAD short in here - going long as well - 1329 and .9756 for a trade.

Short CAD

0.9986... sometime overnight

*EDIT* I haven't posted in a bit but I have been in and out of this currency several times this week. The game plan was always the same - sell upper 90's and buy lower 90's. At no time did I ever go long, but I think we may push through par the next go around. Gold and oil have both found support and may continue to push higher. I will sell CAD hard if Gold doesn't hold the 1355's. As a matter of fact, if the CAD cannot get back up to par and Gold continues higher, it could be an indicator that Gold (and silver) are done.

*EDIT* short CAD and Gold on the breakdown this morning through 1355.

Short 1223

*EDIT* took some profits at 1215/6 - paying for the stop.

*EDIT* took the rest off 1192 - +31

Gold & CAD

From the way gold is trading I have to think that we are closer to a top than a bottom. The Gap fill was completed and the market reacted by selling off quite significantly. Basically, you're 50 points risk to the upside and 100 plus to the downside... I like the R:R here on the short side. The other possibility is that this becomes one gigantic wedge break to the upside.... lol.

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Same with the CAD. I will attempt a short in the next 24 to 48 hours up into resistance on both commodities.

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*EDIT* short starters in Gold and CAD - 1357 and 0,9920 resp.

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*EDIT* This is why you never go all in at one spot. Took a small loss on my GC contracts and my CAD futures positions. No bid deal. At least we now know what we're playing with. It's interesting that this is all taking place before the open... Could see a massive fade.

Short CAD futures 0.98

keeping stops tight... close > .986's

*EDIT* stopped with a small loss....

Adding 1182

*edit* added again today in the upper 1180's. Full position at 1180 average price. Now that we are fully short, a close above 1190 will take me out.

Added more USD futures long today 77.36 - got the low tick!!

Looking to short the Euro into 1.36 but I can't get a good entry....

*EDIT* I'm out today 1180. +2
No Positions at the moment....

Short ES 1176 and long USD 77.36

These are starters as I think the goofs are still out and want to push. No need to get smashed.

May have to wait until just before the election...

Short 1174 - Full fill

*edit* taking half out here at 1167. Rest moved down to evens plus a tick. Looking for 1130...

Long USD

77.36

*edit* stopped through 77 flat last night... unreal. Probably jack higher now.

Covering 30%

At 1129 for +13.

*edit* stopped out at evens plus a tick on the rest... pretty silly.

Short 1142

Short 1142 (Fri. aft.) with some size at $OEX 518. I think the R:R is good here.

Short NQ 2006

Considering how stupid this market is... stops are tight.

*edit* I"m out... +4. This market takes the cake for stupidity.

Covered NQ short +40 or so...

Can an ETF collapse?

http://boganassociates.com/whitepapers.html

NQ

Short NQ 2019.25 for a trade.

ES

Stopped out at evens plus a tick sometime overnight....

VIX

Continuous into support...

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1133 overnight resistance from the other day.

Added 1126

This takes me to a full position.

Stops are going to be tight as the profits from my last trade will take me out at evens.

J

Took some 1112's off

.... pays for my stop and any pain that I may have to sit through.

:>)

Also, 2nd image shows the Aug. 10 gap is still in play. SPX opening and staying below 1106 will make things more interesting.

Short 1112.5 and 1121.25

Added size - 1121.25.... low risk.
Average is around 1119.


Dec. contract

Long NQ at 1766 and the ES at 1044

Possible H&S formations here... low risk.

*edit* took some profits in the +5 point range... but, needless to say, stopped at evens on the rest.

My thinking

Looks like we are trading in a range lately. It seems uncertainty does indeed have a range... and 1130 to 1040 looks to be it.

If we go back to July 7 - a day in which the buying was extremely aggressive and a day in which we broke the downtrend of the prior couple of weeks - 1036 is very strong intraday support. I also see 1052 as intraday support too. Just not as strong. Also, 1052 was a good support level for the weeks following - see highlights - and it was the 50% retracement from 1002 to the 1128 high. So, there are a couple of reasons that put the probability in your favour for a long there. I was confident for a long there but took half out on a 5 point breakdown.

Full Fill Long - 1052

*edit* stopped on half...

Long ES

1088 - Through 1084 and I'm gone.

*edit* stopped

Short USD

for a trade.... 82.39.

*edit* added 82.80. Stop is a close about 83

Stopped

Stopped on Longs - 1109.75 - sometime overnight.

+20points.

Gap fill takes us to 1100 (Sept.). May look at 1097 today.

Added into the close on Friday

Looked like a chance for a gap up. I liked how we held the 1097 spot at the end of the day. This adjusts my price to 1090. Took some profits out up here in the teens. I still think we can launch at some point.

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ya, I need to adjust that stop.

Full Fill Long

Filled today - Currently sitting long with a full position in the mid/low 1080's.

*edit* Took out some of today's entry at 1103 for +14 on the entry. Still long with an average down in the 1080's (Sept.) and a couple of Dec. 1055's.

Currently....

Long a couple of Sept. 1071 (small) and Dec. 1055 (also a couple). Currently bidding 1085 to 1089 for a 3rd and possible final pullback before we head to 1170+. Stops are through 1072.

Offering 1112

Going to take the week off... so I need to lighten up.

Let's see if I can get out up here at 1112.

*edit* crappy - missed this by a tick. Took 3 out in the mid teens - +45 points.

Took 1091

+25

Took some more off here at mild resistance. Letting the rest ride... trail up the stops.

Took some off at 1078

+15 points.

This is to pay for the risk. Still long mid 1060's.

FYI - still holding small Dec. 1055 long.

Trendline Holding

Loooks like this trendline is still resitive.

I imagine a move either way will be pronounced and will continue for some time; going through either shaded region should set up an intermediate trend.

Currently long mid 1060's - but not going to let this get too far.

Covered the other half

from 1091 - + 15

Now long 1075 in Sept. and 1055 in Dec.

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*edit* added - average price 1070 in Sept.

*edit* added in with size in the 1062/3 region. Average price is 1064/5

Path of least resistance...

... is UP? Seems this trendline is putting up a good fight. Time will tell.

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So, I'll probably cover the other half of my 1091 short from last week on the first sign of weakness today.

I am still long ES Dec. 10 at 1055.

Covering half for +32

... of this mornings 1091 short.

This is the breakout point from last week - 1059.25 and a nice intraday double bottom.

I'm also taking an equivalent long in the Dec. contract at 1055 as a bit of a hedge in here. Not sure of where we go with today's weakness but I wanted to lock in this short.

Covered the other half @1091 +73 points.

From 1018.

Looks like resistance around 1094 to 1096... Starting a small short in the low
1090's. Risk is defined.

Short Euro / Long USD

Tight Stops

*EDIT* stopped ... quickly.

I may re-enter this at some point...