Pullback

The "pullback" everyone was waiting for was relatively quick, which means trend continuation is probable. We also formed an inverse H&S on the retracement with ~1280 as the neckline. We'll see what happens with this trendline. We either continue to grind higher or we come off in large batches...

Double Top in Gold?

Converging trendlines and a retracement in the ES - too obvious? - Covering 1275 and shorting 1315 - +40. *edit* 10 points in I took 30% off... Stopped for the rest at evens plus a tick.

The more I look at his gold chart, the more it's telling me top. I see a double top with each separate top consisting of a head and shoulder's pattern... The question remains - is all current information priced in... or, is the central bank shopping spree over? Gold needs to hold the green line around 1405 and close above 1430 or it could signify a trend change. Closing below 1365 would be a game changer.

Gold and the Market

A couple of good rollover shorts - see charts below...

Now though - looks like Gold is going higher... the pullback was to a bullish spot as I mentioned in the prior post.

The ES could pullback to the 1257 area and form an inverse H&S. I would be surprised if we went below 1260 ... with the USD losing support and the bonds continuing on their trend along with oil and silver, the market looks to go higher.

Long in here -1275 - with a parital stop at 6 points... will trail up the rest.

Gold's run

On an intermediate term basis, I would say any retracement would yield the following sentiment:

1380 - bullish

1370 - neutral

1360 - bearish

ES breakdown...

or more of the same?

More of the same....

Looks like we broke... gold into a wedge within a wedge etc etc... this is why you have tight stops. I have 1330 as possible res in the ES.

Our Leader

The Russel has shown the least amount of upward momentum. This chart highlights a lack of interest to go higher; 3 days of failed breakouts and retracements... tells me something is going to give.

Current Positions

Update

Well, it looks like gold broke. I'm not sure if this is technical or a response to the ridiculous activity in the commodity sector. Either way, I don't think this ends well. Small caps have led us higher and the momentum seems to be coming out... note the RSI divergence in the TWM.

Needless to say, I'm keeping these positions on an extremely short leash.

Gold

Gonna break?

Update

Positions

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Euro

Looks like most of the info is priced in... trying for a long in here south of 1.32.

*EDIT* this thing must be broken... took a tiny loss on a starter... ended up daytrading this for a modest gain.

Uncertain?

I don't care what your predictions are ... this is what uncertainty looks like.

Adding ES long at 1088

Full position long - average price is in the upper 1170's.

Stop on half is 2 ticks below today's low....

*EDIT* took half out at 1205 last night.... +25 points.

*EDIT* stopped on the other half... +5.

No positions at the moment.

ES

....currently sitting in at resistance... taking some profits here (+8)to pay for the risk. Trade is now free.

SPY R:R profile

Gold chart.

This one is for Jason.

The support area from the QE2 announcement day was clearly at 1328. So, we use that as a place to buy. You go in with 30% of your total size and see if it holds. Yesterday, when we went into the spot, the price was only there for a quick second. That is the second indicator that tells us we had a good entry. Also, we've come off almost 100 points from the high which is still a good size move to consider before going in for a trade. ie what percentage of the contract does that encompass - 8% or so, so it's a decent retracement. Lastly, the 100min chart shows we are still wedging higher and making higher lows...

The 3 min chart shows that we are holding the spot and wedging higher. So, I'm long my next 30%. Once we start to head higher, you finish the entry with your last 40%. I bought 1329/8 and 1335 as the lows are gettting higher. I"ll buy again if we break out past 1344, come back and HOLD. Then your trend should be in... Out target needs to be around 3:1 of our entry price vs our risk. That puts is in around 30 points or somewhere in the 1360's. The stepping process of entering trades works on 1min charts for intraday scalps and on the 60 min charts for swing trades. I don't take position trades as I don't trade on fundamentals.

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*EDIT* got hit last night on GOLD - 1364/5 - + 31 points.